2. Ecommerce growth: From transaction to retention

Ecommerce merchants offering physical products face a pivotal imperative: Acquisition has become increasingly tricky, while retention emerges as a primary growth initiative.

According to Recurly's State of Subscriptions report, the median acquisition rate across industries dropped from 4% in 2021 to 2.8% in 2024, reflecting market saturation and the growing challenge of subscriber growth.

For consumer goods and retail, the -4% subscriber change year-over-year signals intensifying competition and potential subscription fatigue in the product space.

Glossary: Subscription fatigue

Subscription fatigue occurs when recurring payments and services overwhelm subscribers, leading to selective cancellations of perceived lower-value offerings.

Free trial conversion rates have also been a recent bellwether for acquisition effectiveness. Free trial success fell from 46.4% in 2021 to 33.7% in 2024 according to Recurly. However, the 14.5% return acquisition percentage for consumer goods and retail reveals a significant opportunity within a classic ecommerce sector. That is, former subscribers are a valuable audience for reactivation. It’s a cross-industry exception that merchants can’t afford to overlook.

Did you know?

Free-trial success fell from 46.4% in 2021 to 33.7% in 2024.

— 2025 State of Subscriptions, Recurly

Tactical takeaways: Retention

Customer churn is a persistent challenge. McKinsey research shows up to 40% of subscribers cancel overall. To fight that outcome, ecommerce merchants must implement targeted retention strategies.

Winning the first month is everything — get it right, or they’ll be gone by day 31. Implement a structured engagement program with touchpoints on days 3, 7, 14, and 30. This should include welcome communications, usage tips, success stories, and personalized recommendations based on what the data tells the merchant about purchase behavior.
To slow churn, develop engagement scoring systems that identify at-risk subscribers before they cancel, allocate at least 60% of marketing resources to existing subscriber satisfaction, and implement subscription health dashboards tracking key metrics for early intervention.
For strategic reacquisition, segment former subscribers by cancellation reason and develop targeted win-back campaigns with escalating offers based on subscription history.

sales@recurly.com

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